Monday, June 23, 2008

RE: Thoughts on the OBL Hunt?   [Steve Schippert]

A week ago, Larry Kudlow asked if anyone had thoughts on a U.K. Sunday Times report that President Bush is driving an increased hunt for Osama bin Laden (et al.) inside Pakistan. My answer is that, yes, there is a notable increase in operational tempo against AQ/Taliban targets inside Pakistan. But the Sunday Times report is wrong to ascribe the renewed focus to President Bush seeking a legacy.

Instead, the factor driving the situation is what appears the impending end to Pervez Musharraf's presidency — not George W. Bush's — and what would be an accompanying end to Pakistan's current cooperation against the Taliban and al-Qaeda within their Pakistani lairs.

Simply put, the article predictably focuses on the end of the wrong president's tenure (with the help of yet more anonymous intelligence sources, of course.)

In an analysis published at ThreatsWatch, I described the proper context ignored by the Sunday Times report:

So as far as the tone is concerned regarding George W. Bush driving a big bin Laden hunt simply to be able to place a prize on his legacy mantle, caveat emptor.

The 2004 conspiracy theories about a purely-politically motivated major push to hunt bin Laden were not valid then, and they are not valid now. Here’s why…

Uncertain Pakistani Status

It is not that a change in government is not a major impetus for such a push to kill or capture Usama bin Laden (or Ayman al-Zawahiri for that matter). The Times report is simply looking at the wrong government in change.

In this regard, it is far more reliable to simply look at situations on the ground in Pakistan and Afghanistan than to presume the powers of clairvoyance among anonymous intelligence officials supposedly reading the mind of President Bush.

It is the changes in the Pakistani government that are driving the pace and scope of current operations. Pakistan’s status as a cooperative ally is in serious doubt going forward, and no one knows exactly when the current level of cooperation will end. But it appears that day is much sooner than we would like.

It is quite significant that Nawaz Sharif led an angry crowd of 20,000 last week in chants of "Hang Musharraf!" just outside the Pakistani presidential offices. The analysis goes on to add much more detail, including explaining the connections between Pakistan's Nawaz Sharif — former PM and leader of the PML-N party — and Usama bin Laden and former ISI director Hamid Gul.

If 1,500 words is too heavy to lift today, the audio Cliff's Notes version (via interview) can be heard here.

06/23 02:00 PMShare