Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Jihad In Europe -- Germany, Denmark al-Qaeda Attacks Foiled   [Steve Schippert]

This morning brings developing reports of al-Qaeda bombing plots disrupted in Germany and Denmark, with at least 11 arrests between the two countries. The good news is that in both cases, the wagers of jihad were already under surveillance and disrupted as they attempted to acquire and gather physical resources for planned attacks. The bad news is that the threat in, from, and to Europe continues to grow.

Considering today's developments, NRO readers may be interested in a recent discussion we had with counterterrorism expert Olivier Guitta in a July edition of FireWatch regarding the Jihad in Europe — its current troubling state and its equally troubling origins. (FireWatch MP3 direct download here.)

In Germany, the detained are believed part of the Islamic Jihad Union, a group that splintered from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Taliban-al-Qaeda alliance. In April, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Bill Roggio described the split between the Islamic Jihad Union and the Taliban-al-Qaeda alliance in Pakistan, as, ironically, the IJU sought to attack Musharraf in Pakistan rather than focus on the United States and the West.

Although Mullah Nazir's tribesmen declared a jihad against some Uzbeks and their local supporters in South Waziristan, Arab al Qaeda were not included in this jihad—and the tribesmen didn't even target all Uzbeks in the area. Pakistan's News International notes that the tribesmen are only fighting what they describe as the "bad Uzbeks," rather than the "good Uzbeks."

The bad Uzbeks are part of the Islamic Jihad Group, a faction that splintered from the terrorist Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in 2004. Islamic Jihad Group militants in Waziristan are intent on fighting the "near enemy," including Pakistan's government, rather than U.S. and Coalition forces.

And the good Uzbeks? Rather than being part of the Islamic Jihad Group, they are affiliated with the main IMU, led by Tahir Yuldashev. This faction has closely aligned itself with al Qaeda and the Taliban. Yuldashev is believed to sit on al Qaeda's global shura council and maintains tactical control of about 500 fighters in Pakistan. Intelligence sources believe that some of these fighters serve on the Black Guard, bin Laden's personal corps of bodyguards. Yuldashev enjoys a close relationship with bin Laden, and his strategic preferences align with Mullah Nazir's: he also supports attacks on coalition forces in Afghanistan. The fact that these are the "good Uzbeks" undermines Pakistan's claims about the recent fighting.

Also recall the Taliban 'graduation ceremony' reported in June, as the Taliban adopted al-Qaeda's international strategy of attacks on the West. This ceremony was neither the first nor the last of its kind.

Just some quick background information as the news develops.

09/05 10:42 AMShare