Thursday, September 13, 2007

Why Iran's Quds Force Left Iraq   [Steve Schippert]

Many were surprised by General Petraeus's revelation (sans elaboration) this week that Quds Force has left Iraq. The DC Examiner's Rowan Scarborough sought the elusive elaboration Wednesday and got a bit from Defense sources.

Defense sources told The Examiner on Wednesday that Tehran recalled the Qods Forces out of concern that more Iranian operatives would be captured and disclose valuable information about how Iran is funding, training and arming Iraqi Shiites.

From Iranian detainees, for example, the Baghdad command has learned of bases inside Iran where Iraqi Shiites are trained how to ambush American troops.

Their fear of capture is real, as several Iranian Quds operators (including at least one key leader) have been and are still detained by US forces in Iraq. Regarding why Quds would vacate the battlefield, I wrote Tuesday, "Acknowledging all of this and the surprising boldness of the new American commander, Iran looks to have likewise chosen a ‘new course in Iraq.’" Iran's 'new course,' like our own, is not one that is 'kinder and gentler.'

But the question is not simply 'Why did Quds force leave?' The answer is clear and addressed by the Defense source that Scarborough spoke with.

The driving question is 'Why did Quds Force leave now?' The answer to that would be much more telling. For those interested in a bit of speculative analysis, consider from Tuesday's A New Course In Iraq...For Iran:

While there are murmurs that the President may indeed intend to designate Quds Force under an existing or perhaps entirely new Executive Order, no action has yet officially been taken. The possibility remains that the ‘leak’ of such intent may have been a strategy coordinated between Baghdad command and the Oval Office in order to pressure Iran to pull back somewhat from the Iraqi theater and to gauge their reaction in the field rather than in the rhetoric exchanged in public statements. In this regard, such a strategy — if it was this — netted measurable results. The IRGC commander was fired in short order and General Petraeus now reports that Iranian Quds Force and Hizballah operatives have left the Iraqi theater.

Whether designating Quds Force was a bit of PSYOP or not is speculative. That its reporting was a driving factor is not very speculative at all. (Consider the timing and other bulleted information in Tuesday's analysis above.) Iran's Quds Force had weathered the surge to date. So what changed in the theater? A sense that Washington's tolerance had come to a close, and the heat was about to be 'kicked up a notch.' This spurred the Iranian regime's simultaneous changing of the IRGC's top commander.

But there's always a catch. Pay attention here.

One thing that General Petraeus did not say was that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been pulled out of Iraq. This is the larger elite Iranian military branch of which Quds Force is a part. This is not likely an unintended oversight by an intelligent field commander who possesses a Ph.D. from Princeton. This means that the general is expressly not saying that all Iranian operatives are out of Iraq.

Scarborough was also careful to distinguish Quds Force from the rest of the IRGC, likely at the reminding of his Defense source.

I for one hope that the 'leak' of designating Quds Force a terrorist group was a successful PSYOP and nothing more. For the day we designate a state military branch's special forces unit that reports directly to the state's ruling regime a terrorist group is the day we grease our own slopes.

Please think about the International Criminal Courts and why President Bush refused to subject the US Military to the ICC's jurisdiction when it finally formed in 2002 — to much international and domestic Left objection. There was a reason for their objection.

Recall also, please, that there was a recent US Administration that was not entirely opposed to ICC jurisdiction over US Military forces. We may not be far from one again.

09/13 12:07 AMShare